“You may have won the cold war, but you have lost the cold peace”
As the world continues to slowly (or rapidly) decouple the rotting tentacles the United States deployed back when it was an effective imperial power, it will leave the shadowy Wall Street power players that remain with fewer options for destruction and accumulation than they are used to. However, to say no prospects remain for them and that they’ll give up the game is not a safe conclusion for those of us who choose (or are forced) to still dwindle here. As the BRICS+ sphere consolidates its power more and more, the shortsighted American policy makers will start to learn from their repeated frustrations that its useless to intervene in Eurasia, then Africa, and then finally even much of South America (don’t mess with Brasilia, you crazy gringos). What, then, is left to tinker with and torment?
The northern two-thirds of the “old” new world, specifically Costa Rica up through the United States, with Canada in the fold as a junior partner to the degree that it isn’t beholden to Chinese and Russian influences.
Why is this a plausible outcome in the coming years?
As averred to above, the powerful oligarchic class or group of people that together have control of most of the levers in economic-political-energy-military affairs at home, but less and less abroad—I believe the “other 99%” have some power, but only a minor minority—will come to “rediscover” opportunities at home as their levers don’t move any affairs East of the Prime Meridian. The east is building its own dollar free zone that is somehow conquering geographical boundaries (Eurasia is full of mountain ranges) with pipelines. China is known for large, awe or fear inspiring projects: a great wall as a historical attribute, more recently the blowing up of mountains to get at the juice inside; and so it shouldn’t be that surprising that they will build (or finance) the large part of the new silk highways that are being woven by mechanical wereworms. This new old world is underway, and there is no amount of bonds or paper the United States can throw at it to stop it; in fact, the less paper it throws, the better chance it will have of playing at least a marginal role in its future. But the US is in denial, though sooner or later they’ll get the memo, or the meme, of a cost benefit analysis that they can no longer resist to act on. Mike Tyson, if you will, will retire to a seniors’ boxing league where he can build up some self esteem to enjoy his golden years (ironically ungolden for the USA). Or, if you’d rather, a man would rather piss in a puddle and watch mosquitoes die than piss in the ocean and be frightened of attracting sharks.
Three of the five oceans—if you subscribe to the multi-ocean concept—the Atlantic, Pacific, and Arctic, will prove to be durable backyard fencing, enough to keep America separate from other MAD (mutually assured destruction) nations, which would make all the groups happy in a new multipolar world. China and Russia, finally obtaining the commanding heights from America to control the global economy, will surely not want a rabid and dangerous United States to spoil the prize for everyone through erratic WMD wars, despite the fact of their (C&R) growing strategic advantage to likely “win” such extremely cost prohibitive conflicts. They have long been mastering the patience game, and are content to let the United States die in its own hemisphere, having after repeated buy-ins finally folded keeping a small stolen stash, leaving the ongoing game where China is all-in with the winning hand. Perhaps a ways down the road the East will look to settle old debts, but I think time will prove to be a long protective barrier for the United States as the wise 5,000 year old culture errs on the side of caution. (this last point may seem to be open to negation as after many years of selling to the United States the Chinese have gained a taste for buying the United States; however, as may be explained in a later post, they are buying strategic, containment installations—it is arguable that they are retiring us rather than our choosing to retire; they are playing the game of risk ever so carefully, perhaps in direct inverse correlation to the increasing sloppiness of the United States, so that they don’t suffer the “winning risk irony” whereby the game ends when its obvious there is going to be a winner, and everybody goes home with the winner feeling somewhat unsatisfied)
In the “Empire’s Workshop” of Central America there are already a disproportionate amount of military bases and other convenient historical memories that leverage hierarchical style compliance out of the militarily feeble and dependent nations that make up the “bull’s tail”. But for those forgetful wretches—or to learn the new generations—some demonstrations will surely be performed. This plays in to that the backyard is the perfect place to let off some steam from too much military industrial complex initiated stockpiling of equipment replete with pretty, useless bells and whistles (added on to raise the price of the Raytheon contract which gouged yet more tax-payer money). Why not see if the toys we paid ourselves for and bought for ourselves was worth it? The military equipment—not sold off during the denial-of-losing-the-game-of-global-domination-stage, when things of great value would be collateralized to buy a few months of status quo—will partake in Colosseum style gladiator battle ship games, where teams of unfortunates are sure to go at it; and why not film and edit the whole event for an IMAX 3D release later that summer (without mentioning to the viewers the reason for the extreme genuineness on the screen)? Such fiestas will be saved for the weekends; to pass the dull weekdays the navy can have self-challenge games to see how many submarines and carriers can be fit in to the Gulf of Mexico and El mar Caribe without there being an accident. All of this, of course, will be happening against a background of tightening energy supplies that can not afford acts of such infantile hubris. But time and time again should teach us that there is no shortage of shortsightedness.
Most of the central American nations will not dare to do much of anything, visibly at least, and even some South American nations, rare to experience a hurricane, will have to deal with the brunt of a sustained late season category 3 Hurricane, the Sea Bitch UrSAla that is a falling power with a lot of vengeance. Venezuela particularly stands out to me, as it has just too much coast smiling north and too much easy petróleo. I fear such a place will be too much to resist when the washed out abusive father returns home looking for a place to disperse the pent up military energies. The pretexts for such endeavours are sure to get ever more creative and ever more pathetic, as the 21st century public relations teams put out trial balloons and surveys to probe the degree of ineptitude of the public.
There is one war of conquest that is sure to happen, whether or not there is a puppet in office and a humbling people quivering with fear, and that is a war with Mexico.
Note: I edited a couple of unnecessary vulgarities 2015-01-09
More on Recuerde el álamo: A Pretext to a war with Mexico, next time.